China to supply India with 1.2 mln tons of urea amid sharp price decline
China is set to supply India with at least 1.2 mln tons of urea under the latest tender by state-owned Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF). The volume represents about two-thirds of the 1.7 mln tons India sought to purchase. Shipments are required to leave loading ports by September 24.
The lowest offers in the tender were $390.25/t CFR for India’s east coast and $393.65/t for the west coast. By comparison, prices in India’s June tender were around $444–449/t.
Current prices are significantly below the levels recorded in spring, when nitrogen fertilizer prices surged. In April, India purchased 2.5 mln tons of urea at $935–959/t amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Prices have therefore fallen by about 58% from their April peak.
China’s return to the export market has been one of the key factors behind the decline in global prices. The country’s urea export allowance for 2026 has increased to around 5–5.5 mln tons. China exported about 403 thsd tons of urea in July, up from just 7 thsd tons in June, while total exports in January–July reached around 907 thsd tons.
Increasing Chinese supply is putting additional pressure on the global urea market and indicates that the price decline since mid-summer is being driven by more than seasonal demand weakness. Rising exports from China are improving the availability of nitrogen fertilizers on the global market and increasing competition among suppliers.
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