China slaughtered 183 mln pigs in the first half of the year, driving down prices

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Chinese slaughterhouses processed 183.55 million pigs from January to June, a 14.5% increase from the same period in 2024. The increase in slaughter volumes ensured an abundant supply of pork, but also had a negative impact on livestock and meat prices.

Prices of live pigs, meat, and piglets have fallen

Prices of live pigs have fallen for six consecutive weeks, reaching 14.35 yuan/kg in mid-August, a 31.4% decrease from a year earlier. Pork prices also fell to 24.93 yuan/kg in the third week of August, a 22% decrease from a year earlier.

For piglets, the decline was even more prolonged: fifteen consecutive weeks of decline, reaching 33.25 yuan/kg, a 25.4% year-on-year decline.

Adjusted but Positive Profitability

Despite the price decline, pig farming remains profitable thanks to lower feed costs. Corn and soybean meal prices remain at historically low levels, allowing for cost reductions. According to analyst Zhu Zengyong of the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, pig farming has remained profitable for 15 consecutive months, although profitability has declined, with average farm profits falling below 100 yuan in July.

Market Outlook

Pork consumption remains weak during the hot season, although a recovery is expected in September and a significant increase in the south of the country with the jerky season in late November.

In the short term, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a new round of stockpiling domestic frozen pork to remove the product from the market and stabilize prices.

Internationally, China imported 626,000 tons of pork from January to July, up 4.1% year-on-year, although imports fell 0.6% in July.

Analysts expect prices to show slight seasonal increases and limited fluctuations, with profitability remaining secure but increasingly tight.

Tags: pork, prices, China