China resumes US soybean purchases, but American farmers remain cautious

China has resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans following a new trade agreement with the United States, improving market sentiment and supporting soybean prices. However, American farmers note that export volumes remain well below pre-trade war levels, while farm profitability continues to be under pressure.

Under the agreement, China committed to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2026 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. Although U.S. soybean exports to China increased by 57% year-on-year during January–March, much of these shipments consist of 2025-crop inventories that had been stored after China suspended purchases last year.

Despite the recent recovery, China has accounted for less than 30% of total U.S. soybean exports since the beginning of the current marketing year—roughly half of its share before the trade dispute. Analysts say it will only become clear at the end of the marketing year whether China fulfills its purchase commitments.

Although soybean prices have improved compared to last year, U.S. soybean production remains barely profitable. According to industry estimates, current prices combined with average yields are still insufficient for most farmers to break even. For many producers, this marks a third consecutive season of operating under the threat of financial losses.

Economists also warn that China’s purchases may largely reflect government stockpiling rather than sustainable commercial demand. Once inventories are built, import demand could weaken again, leaving U.S. farmers exposed to renewed market uncertainty.

As a result, the United States continues to diversify its export markets by expanding soybean and soybean meal shipments to countries such as Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Japan. These markets have helped offset part of the decline in Chinese demand, while the industry continues to seek new long-term buyers to reduce dependence on a single export destination.