China raises 2026/27 sugar production forecast to 13.6 mln tons

China’s Ministry of Agriculture raised its sugar production forecast for the MY 2026/27 by 670 thsd tons, or 5.2%, to 13.6 mln tons in its November CASDE report. Compared with the previous season, when production totaled 12.95 mln tons, output is expected to increase by 5%. The main reason for the upward revision was an improved outlook for cane sugar production following an expansion in sugarcane acreage.

China’s cane sugar production in 2026/27 is forecast at 12.29 mln tons, compared with 11.38 mln tons in the previous season. The estimate was raised by 860 thsd tons, or 7.5%, from the October forecast. Meanwhile, the projected sugarcane area was revised upward by 7.8% to 1.345 mln hectares, compared with 1.248 mln hectares in the previous estimate.

Unlike cane sugar, China’s beet sugar production could decline to 1.31 mln tons, compared with 1.57 mln tons in 2025/26. The November estimate was lowered by 190 thsd tons, or 12.7%, from October. At the same time, the forecast sugar beet planting area was reduced by 20.7% to 169 thsd hectares. The country’s total area planted with sugar crops is expected to reach 1.514 mln hectares, up 3.6% from the previous estimate.

Despite increasing domestic production, China will continue to import substantial volumes of sugar. The import forecast for 2026/27 remains unchanged at 4.8 mln tons, compared with 4.27 mln tons in the previous season. Meanwhile, the domestic consumption estimate was raised by 170 thsd tons to 15.9 mln tons, almost matching the previous season’s level of 15.89 mln tons.

According to the ministry’s updated estimates, China’s overall sugar balance in 2026/27 is expected to improve due to higher domestic production. The projected surplus was raised from 1.82 mln to 2.32 mln tons. Meanwhile, imports remaining at 4.8 mln tons indicate that China will continue to be an important buyer in the global sugar market despite the expected increase in domestic supplies.

Tags: China, sugar