China may reduce soybean purchases in the new season by more than 7%

China, the world’s largest soybean importer, is forecasting a significant reduction in purchases in the upcoming season. This trend is driven by structural changes in livestock production, specifically a decline in the hog population, and the country’s desire to reduce its reliance on imports, Bloomberg reports.

According to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture’s monthly agricultural supply and demand assessment report, the country’s soybean purchases in the new season beginning in October 2026 could decline by 7.6% compared to the previous year, to 95.5 million tons.

The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture attributes this decline to a decline in the hog population. Beijing is seeking to reduce hog numbers to support local prices, which have fallen to their lowest level in at least 15 years, leading to persistent losses for farmers. Pork imports had already declined by 19% at the beginning of 2026, indicating weak feed demand.

This forecast contradicts the estimate in the USDA’s Global Crop Status Report, released on May 12, which projected China’s soybean imports to increase to 114 million tons.

The White House previously stated that China would purchase at least 25 million tons of soybeans annually through 2028.

China is also actively pursuing plans to reduce the soybean meal content in animal feed from 13% in 2023 to 10% by 2030 through the use of synthetic amino acids and alternative protein sources.

The Chinese government has ordered a reduction in the breeding sow population to 36.5 million, 3.1 million fewer than at the end of 2025, to stabilize pork prices, which have fallen due to oversupply. China is striving to increase food self-sufficiency. Long-term plans call for a 26% reduction in dependence on imported soybeans by 2035.

Declining demand for soybeans from China is creating additional pressure on global exporters, particularly the United States, which had been counting on increasing sales to China after 2025. It was previously reported that China had returned to large-scale purchases of soybeans from the United States, but experts expect the demand to be short-lived.

Tags: China, Brazil, soybean, USA, imports