China may increase feed grain imports amid weather risks to corn crop

China may increase feed grain imports in the 2026/27 season due to unfavorable weather conditions in key corn-growing regions. Abnormally high temperatures, heavy rainfall and flooding since mid-July have created risks for both crop yields and quality. As a result, demand could increase not only for imported corn but also for alternatives such as barley and sorghum.

According to USDA forecasts, China is expected to import 5 mln tons of corn this season, up 1 mln tons from the previous season. However, this remains well below previous years, when imports reached as much as 29.5 mln tons per season. Barley imports are forecast at 11.2 mln tons and sorghum at 6.6 mln tons.

There are currently no precise estimates of potential corn crop losses caused by adverse weather. Corn planting area increased by around 0.4%, and some analysts therefore do not expect a significant decline in production. However, deterioration in the quality of China’s domestic corn could provide additional support to import demand.

Signs of stronger buying are already emerging. In January-July, China increased corn imports by 1.6 times compared with the same period last year, while barley imports rose by 1.5 times and sorghum imports by almost 1.9 times.

Brazil, Argentina and other countries remain major suppliers of corn to the Chinese market, while the US is China’s key sorghum supplier. China sources most of its barley from Australia, Canada and Argentina. Further import dynamics will largely depend on harvest results and the quality of China’s new corn crop.

Tags: China, corn, barley, imports, sorghum