China expects rapeseed meal prices to decline as rapeseed imports increase

Rapeseed meal prices in China remained relatively stable in early August, but the market could come under pressure in the coming months due to an expected increase in imported rapeseed supplies. According to SunSirs, the average rapeseed meal price declined by 0.33% between August 3 and 7, from RMB 2,394/t to RMB 2,386/t.

Rapeseed meal supply currently remains limited. Imported rapeseed arrivals have not yet reached their seasonal peak, while crushers face constrained raw material supplies, limiting growth in meal production. Rapeseed meal inventories remain low compared with the same period in previous years, providing support to spot prices.

However, the situation could change in late August and September, when significant volumes of Canadian rapeseed are expected to arrive in China. Market participants are already pricing in the anticipated increase in supply, limiting the upside potential for rapeseed meal prices.

On the demand side, the market is being supported primarily by the seasonal peak in aquaculture feed production. However, feed producers are mostly purchasing rapeseed meal only to cover immediate needs and reduce buying activity when prices rise. Ample soybean meal supplies are also limiting demand for rapeseed meal, while demand from the livestock and poultry sectors remains weak.

In the short term, low inventories and aquaculture demand are expected to keep rapeseed meal prices within a relatively narrow range. However, higher rapeseed arrivals, increased crushing and a seasonal decline in aquaculture demand could eventually result in excess supply and put downward pressure on rapeseed meal prices in the medium term.

Tags: China, prices, rapeseed, imports, rapeseed meal