Canadian wheat exports maintain above-average pace despite rising competition

Canadian wheat exports in the MY 2025/26 continue to outpace last season’s pace, despite a recent slowdown in weekly shipments. According to Exceed Grain Marketing, the decline in wheat exports in recent weeks has largely been driven by stronger canola shipments, which have temporarily taken priority in export logistics.

Over the past week, approximately 257,000 tonnes of canola were exported, compared to 220,300 tonnes of wheat. This shift reflects strong global demand for oilseeds and the reallocation of export capacity. Nevertheless, cumulative wheat export volumes remain strong on a year-to-date basis.

So far in the current marketing year, Canada has exported 12.5 million tonnes of wheat, up 10% from 11.2 million tonnes during the same period last year. This increase highlights steady international demand for Canadian wheat, even as global market competition intensifies.

However, growing competition from other exporters continues to limit price gains. Export bids from the U.S. Pacific Northwest have declined in recent weeks, moving closer to Canadian export values on the west coast. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for Canadian wheat exports to 29 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season, which would mark a new record if achieved.

Ending stocks in Canada are projected at around 5.9 million tonnes, indicating a generally balanced domestic market without significant supply tightness. Wheat planted area for the 2026/27 season is expected to remain relatively stable, while rapeseed acreage may increase and pulse and oat area could decline. Upcoming acreage reports will provide further clarity on production and market outlook.

Tags: export, Canada, wheat