Canadian pork producers brace for Trump’s February 1 target for US tariffs

With the threat of a 25% tariff on all imported Canadian goods on 1 February, Canadian pork producers who ship pigs across the southern border are feeling stressed. President Trump has threatened tariffs as a way to ensure the federal and provincial governments in Canada curb illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking into his country.

Manitoba pig farmers are especially concerned, as 40% of production in that province – about 3 million of the 8 million pigs finished annually – is exported to the US.

Manitoba Pork Chair Rick Préjet stated recently that tariffs “could have a very significant impact on what farmers and producers in Manitoba receive” for exported pigs.

In his mind, if tariffs are applied, it will be a question of “how badly” a given Manitoba producer needs to ship pigs to stay afloat, and how much desire there will be among Americans to buy these more-expensive pigs. “Where is that going to settle out?” Préjet asks. “That is a huge unknown.”

The North American pork production supply chain is tightly integrated and tariffs would affect many items that cross the border constantly besides live pigs, such as raw ingredients for feed. In addition, Canada is also the third-largest importer of US pork after Mexico and China.

If Canadian pigs become subject to a US import tariff, Canada may place tariffs on incoming US pork products, but also other products, disrupting many supply chains. For example, Canada exports about 7 million tonnes of potash annually to the US, much of it from Saskatchewan, which supplies the vast majority – about 80% – of the potassium used to fertilise US crops. Sourcing that elsewhere for this growing season would be challenging and expensive for US farmers.

Both Premier Scott Moe of Saskatchewan and Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta have taken action to meet Trump’s demands for better border security.

Alberta ships a large amount of oil to the US for processing, and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau has asked Smith to agree to potentially cutting off oil exports. Smith has refused. Instead, she has made strenuous attempts to leverage Alberta’s supply of cheap energy and to “find common ground” in the hopes of staving off Trump’s tariffs for the entire country of Canada.

It was noted by the world that Smith was invited to Trump’s inauguration, the first time a Canadian Premier has ever attended such an event. It was also noted globally that for the first time in history, the current Canadian Prime Minister was not invited to a US president’s inauguration. Trudeau has prorogued (halted) parliament and has pledged to resign as soon as his party elects a new leader.

Tags: pork, Canada, US, Production, Pigs, live pigs, tariff, pig farmers