Canadian grain-production bonanza confirmed

The market has been trading a big Canadian winter crop for some months now, but the updated survey-based production estimates released by Statistics Canada late last week surpassed even the most optimistic of forecasts, with new records set for both wheat and canola output in 2025/26.

In its final crop production report of the 2025/2026 season, the agency pegged all wheat production a tad shy of 40 million tonnes (Mt), 11.2 percent higher than last year and well above trade expectations of 38.5Mt. Canola output came in 13.3pc above the 2024 harvest at 21.8Mt, versus the pre-report trade forecast of 21.25Mt.

The November 2025 principal field crop production survey was sent to approximately 27,200 Canadian farms and was conducted from October 3 to November 6, 2025. Farmers were asked to report their estimated seeded and harvested areas, yields, and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops.

According to Statistics Canada, weather conditions in western Canada were quite variable throughout the growing season. Despite dry conditions in the early parts of the summer, timely rainfall later in the growing season improved the outlook considerably. The late-season replenishment of soil moisture reserves pushed yields and production to record highs in many regions. Harvest progress was generally good across the Prairies, proceeding in line with historical averages in most districts, and largely complete by mid-October.

However, precipitation was generally below average in the nation’s eastern provinces for much of the season. Combined with summer heat, these conditions resulted in lower yields in many districts. Like the Prairies, harvest conditions were generally good, with field operations completed in line with the long-term average.

The official total wheat output of 39.96Mt is significantly higher than both the September estimate of 36.62Mt and last year’s harvest of 35.94Mt, as well as adding 2.37Mt to the previous production benchmark of 37.59Mt, which was harvested back in 2013. This is also 3.0Mt higher than the United States Department of Agriculture’s November supply and demand update. With domestic consumption relatively stagnant over the past 15 years, this opens up the potential for wheat exports to exceed last season’s record of 29.3Mt.

Spring wheat led the production charge, increasing 10.3pc year-on-year to 29.3 million tonnes. A 12.9pc rise in yield to 3.95t/ha more than offset the lower harvested area, which was 2.1pc lower than 2024 at 7.41 million hectares.

The durum wheat harvest followed up a 50.2pc output increase from 2023 to 2024 with a further rise of 11.8pc to 7.14Mt in 2025. Again, this was higher than the September estimate of 6.54Mt and last year’s harvest of 6.38Mt, with improved yields and a larger harvested area both contributing to the increase. Winter wheat production managed a 17.0pc increase to 3.56Mt on the back of a higher harvested area, despite lower yields across the Prairies.

Timely late-season rainfall helped nudge canola yields into record or near-record territory across the Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This resulted in the highest ever average yield of 2.51t/ha, and a new production benchmark nationally. This year’s harvest was 1.8Mt higher than the September estimate of 20.0Mt and 2.56Mt more than the 2024 harvest of 19.24Mt despite a 1.7pc decline in the harvested area to 8.7 million hectares. It is also 340,000t more than the previous production record of 21.46Mt set in 2017, when the harvested area was almost 580,000 hectares higher at a record 9.27 million hectares.

The Canadian canola crush is projected to hit a new high of 12Mt in 2025/26, as surging demand for renewable diesel drives major industry expansion. Crush capacity utilisation dropped to as low as 65pc after China imposed a 100pc tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal back in March, but has recovered in the second half of the year to be hovering around 90pc. The record crop still leaves room for exports of around 8Mt in 2025/26, compared to the current USDA estimate of 6.7Mt, despite the burgeoning domestic demand profile.

Total corn for grain output came in at 14.87Mt, down 3.1pc nationally from the 2024 harvest of 15.35Mt, notwithstanding a 0.8pc increase in the harvested area to 1.46 million hectares. It is also substantially lower than Statistics Canada’s September forecast of 15.5Mt. While production in Manitoba increased by 24.5pc to 2.2Mt, drought conditions in the eastern provinces, where most of the nation’s corn is grown, pushed the national yield 3.9pc lower from 10.59t/ha in 2024 to 10.18t/ha this year.

On the barley front, a 25.5pc jump in the average yield to 4.27t/ha more than offset the 4.9pc decrease in the harvested area to post a 19.4pc jump in output to 9.73Mt. This compares to the average pre-report forecast of 8.9Mt, the September estimate of 8.23Mt and the 2024 harvest of 8.14Mt. However, this is only marginally higher than the 25-year average of 9.43Mt, and well below the 1996 barley production record of 15.56Mt. The supply boost will undoubtedly be welcomed by Canadian feed grain consumers, given the anticipated drop in corn imports, the smaller domestic corn crop, and the exceptional barley export pace this season.

Final oat production followed a similar path, with the Statistics Canada number of 3.92Mt exceeding the average pre-report estimate of 3.66Mt, the September estimate of 3.37Mt, and last year’s output of 3.36Mt. An increase in the harvested area of 5.6pc to 1.05 million hectares was compounded by a 10.6pc increase in the average yield to 3.74t/ha.

Like corn, a good soybean crop in Manitoba, where the harvest was 12.3pc higher, was offset by poor yields in the country’s main production regions across eastern Canada. This resulted in national production of 6.79Mt, down from 7.57Mt in 2024 and the September projection of 7.13Mt, notwithstanding a 1.4pc increase in the harvested area to 2.32 million hectares.

The recovery in Canada’s pulse output continued in 2025. Dry field pea production increased by 31.3pc season-on-season to 3.93Mt, after a 14.9pc hike in 2024, while the lentil harvest was a record 3.36Mt, 38.3pc higher than in 2024, after a 35pc surge in output last year compared to 2023.

Tags: estimate, harvest, corn, barley, canola, soybeans, Canada, Production, wheat, oat, winter crop