Canadian agricultural exports to U.S. surpass imports

Canada has built a sizable agricultural trade balance surplus with the United States.

The balance totalled $18.3 billion in 2022, up from $1.8 billion in 1993.

“While the trade balance has fluctuated over the past 30 years, Canada consistently maintained a positive trade balance with the U.S. when it comes to agriculture, agri-food and seafood products,” Agriculture Canada media relations officer Bronwyn Goodman said in an email.

Breaking it down by decade, the trade balance grew by a cumulative annual growth rate of 15.3 percent between 1993 to 2002, contracted by a rate of -8.7 percent between 2003 and 2012, and then grew again by a rate of 21.4 percent between 2013 and 2022.

“The trade balance has widened significantly in the past five years, increasing from $7.3 billion in 2018 to $18.3 billion in 2022,” she said.

The growth has been due to a significant increase in four main product groups.

Shipments of canola oil have more than doubled to $3.9 billion from $1.7 billion over that five-year period.

Canola meal exports have jumped to $1.6 billion from $1.2 billion.

“The increase in canola meal and oil exports have been driven mainly by lower U.S. domestic production, higher consumption of vegetable oils, a growing biodiesel industry, and increased use of canola meal in dairy feed,” she said.

Bakery products increased to $4.3 billion from $2.4 billion.

Fresh, boneless beef sales reached $2.5 billion, up from $1.5 billion.

“A strong U.S. currency and an increased U.S. domestic demand for beef and veal products are some of the other factors driving the increase in exports to the U.S.,” said Goodman.

In 2022, the top agriculture, agri-food and seafood export product was bread, pastry, cakes and biscuits.

The top-five was rounded out by canola oil, fresh or chilled bovine meat, potatoes and canola meal.

Those five categories accounted for 26 percent of the $54.8 billion in exports to the U.S. that year.

Canada bought $36.5 billion of U.S. products in 2022, up from $6.9 billion in 1993.

The top-five imports from the U.S. were food preparations, denatured ethyl alcohol and other spirits, corn, bakery products and pet food.

Agriculture Canada has set a goal under the Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership of increasing global exports of agriculture, agri-food and seafood products to $95 billion by 2028, from $92.7 billion in 2022.

It appears that Canada’s trade balance surplus with the U.S. will continue to grow, according to a recently released report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service.

They forecast that the trade balance will expand to US$12.5 billion in favour of Canada in 2024, up from an estimated $11.77 billion in 2023.

Canada’s exports to the U.S. are forecast at $40.2 billion, while its imports will be $27.7 billion.

“U.S. demand for vegetable oil and consumer grain products is expected to continue to strengthen canola oil and grain product imports, such as pasta, from Canada into fiscal year 2024,” said the USDA.

Tags: exports, United States, Canada, Beef, canola oil, forecast, shipments, canola meal, agricultural trade, potatoes, bovine meat, boneless beef, veal products, trade balance