Canada’s wheat production could decline by 10% but remain among the highest on record

Canada’s wheat production is forecast to reach 36.1 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, down 10% from the previous season’s record harvest of more than 40 mln tons. Nevertheless, the projected crop would be the second largest in the country’s history. According to USDA FAS, the decline in production reflects both a reduction in harvested area and lower yields. Unfavorable weather conditions, particularly a cool and wet spring that delayed planting, also affected the season’s results.

The smaller harvest is expected to limit wheat supplies available for export. USDA FAS forecasts that Canadian exports of wheat and wheat products will decline by 2.8% in the MY 2026/27  compared with the previous season Despite the reduction, Canada is expected to maintain substantial export potential and remain one of the world’s leading wheat suppliers.

Meanwhile, export activity has remained strong at the beginning of the new marketing year. The intensive shipment pace recorded toward the end of the 2025/26 season continued into the first months of 2026/27. In each of the latest five months for which statistics are available, Canada either set a new monthly record for grain wheat exports or approached historical highs. This trend may indicate that a significant share of export shipments is being concentrated in the first half of the season.

Domestic wheat consumption in Canada is also expected to decline slightly, mainly due to reduced use in the food industry. One contributing factor is the more limited availability of milling-quality wheat. At the same time, wheat use for animal feed is forecast to increase, as part of the new crop may fail to meet food-grade requirements due to lower quality characteristics.

Despite the projected decline in production and exports, Canada will remain an important player in international wheat trade. In the 2025/26 season, the country ranked third globally in wheat production and sixth in exports. Key factors shaping the Canadian wheat market this season will include grain quality, the allocation of supplies between food and feed uses, and the pace of export shipments following a strong start to the marketing year.

Tags: Canada, wheat, crop forecast