Canada’s oilseed production will fall by 4%

Canada’s total oilseed production, including canola, soybeans, and sunflower seed, is expected to decline by 4% in 2026-27 to 27.55 million tonnes, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

Canola production is expected to decline by less than 8% to 20.11 million tonnes, down from a record 21.8 million tonnes in 2025-26.

Seed exports are expected to decline in 2026-27 due to lower production. Regulatory uncertainty surrounding the canola export market in the United States has been resolved for 2026 and 2027, increasing the share of seed used for oil relative to seed for export. A 2.5% increase in processing is expected in 2025-26 and nearly 7% in 2026-27.

“However, domestic processors may face increased competition for canola seed from Chinese canola seed buyers due to a significant reduction in trade barriers, which will allow for increased export volumes of Canadian canola seed to China,” the FAS said.

Canola oil production is estimated at 5.3 million tonnes in 2026-27, up nearly 7% from the previous year.

The FAS stated that several factors are expected to boost external demand for Canadian canola oil to a record high in 2026-27. Biofuels policy in the United States is expected to play a key role in oil exports, which are projected to reach a total of 3.6 million tonnes, up from 3.4 million tonnes in 2025-26.

Soybean production is estimated at 7.37 million tonnes in 2026-27, compared to 6.79 million tonnes in the previous year. Intense summer heat and severe moisture stress in key growing regions reduced production by nearly 11% in 2025-26, according to the Federal Antimonopoly Service.

Since the start of 2025-26, soybean exports have reached a record high, increasing 3% year-on-year to 4.49 million tonnes, driven by record production levels from previous harvests and possibly increased demand from US diesel producers seeking to fill the UCO (United Commodity Oil) gap.

Tags: soybean, Canada, rapeseed, crop forecast