Canada: Wheat production under pressure in 2025/26

USDA attaché report highlights drought, ‘poor’ conditions for Canadian wheat crop

Here are the highlights of a report released Thursday by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Ottawa:

“Wheat production in 2025/26 is under pressure from poor growing conditions for spring and winter wheat in key Prairie provinces, with drought the main concern. Exports, particularly of durum, are strong. The 5 million tonnes year-to-date (YTD) of durum exports through May 2025 reflect robust demand, while supplies of other varieties are relatively stable. Feed wheat markets are under pressure from competition from alternative grains. Carry-away stocks are tightening in 2024/25. Insufficient crop recovery or moisture stress could lead to further increases. Supply risks. The tariff situation is volatile, ongoing negotiations and potential trade policy changes are creating uncertainty in the wheat market. FAS/Ottawa forecasts total wheat production of 35,150,000 tonnes, based on Statistics Canada’s June 27 update of planted area, three-year average Canadian yields and three-year average yields for each of Canada’s three main wheat varieties: spring, durum and winter.

Tags: Canada, wheat, crop forecast