Canada: Wheat Output Decline Projected for 2025

Statistics Canada’s latest modelled estimates suggest that wheat production in Canada will decline slightly in 2025, driven primarily by weaker yields across several regions. National output is expected to edge down 1.1% to 35.5 million tonnes, with yields forecast to fall 1.2% to 49.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to remain steady, rising marginally by 0.1% to 26.3 million acres.

Spring wheat accounts for much of the expected drop. Production is forecast at 26.0 million tonnes, a 2.0% decline from 2024. Harvested acres are projected to fall by 1.5% to 18.4 million, and yields are expected to dip by 0.5% to 51.9 bushels per acre.

Durum wheat is also expected to see a decline despite slightly higher acres. Harvested area is projected to rise by 0.4% to 6.4 million acres, but yields are forecast to fall 5.1% to 35.1 bushels per acre. As a result, production is anticipated to fall 4.7% to 6.1 million tonnes.

Regional patterns show sharp contrasts. In Saskatchewan, yields are projected to decrease 6.7% to 41.8 bushels per acre, with harvested area down 2.4%. This will bring total output down 9.0% to 15.7 million tonnes.

Manitoba faces weaker conditions, with output forecast to drop 6.2% to 5.4 million tonnes as lower yields offset modest acreage growth. Ontario shows the opposite trend, with production expected to rise 11.9% to 2.9 million tonnes thanks to higher harvested area, despite yields slipping 3.6% to 89.6 bushels per acre.