Canada to cut wheat production by 11%, canola crop to remain near last year’s level

Canada is expected to reduce wheat production by around 11% in 2026 compared with last year, while the canola crop is set to remain almost unchanged, according to Statistics Canada’s first production estimate based on modeling and satellite data.

Spring wheat production is forecast at 26.5 mln tons, more than 3 mln tons below the 2025 level. Durum output is projected at 6.4 mln tons, down by more than 800 thsd tons from last year.

Canola production is estimated at 22.1 mln tons versus a revised 22.2 mln tons last year, when Canada harvested a record crop. However, analysts expect strong domestic and export demand to tighten carryover stocks before the next harvest.

Wheat yields were negatively affected by intense mid-summer heat, while rains during harvest in the western provinces added further risks to grain quality. Excess moisture can cause sprouting, bleaching and disease.

Statistics Canada also estimates that oat production will fall by 22.7% in 2026, while barley output will remain roughly unchanged from last year. Final production figures may be revised after harvest is completed.

Tags: canola, Canada, wheat, harvest