Canada raises canola ending stocks forecast by nearly 500 thsd tons

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has significantly raised its forecast for canola ending stocks in the MY 2026/27 to 1.979 mln tons, compared to 1.504 mln tons in its August estimate. The projected stocks were revised upward by 475 thsd tons, or nearly 32%. Meanwhile, the estimate for the previous season’s ending stocks was also increased by 175 thsd tons to 1.9 mln tons.

The upward revision by one of the world’s largest canola exporters reinforces expectations of ample global supplies. Higher carryover stocks could ease competition among buyers and put additional pressure on spot prices and canola futures.

The expected increase in stocks is also affecting the canola oil market. Canola seed is the main raw material used in canola oil production, and greater seed availability could reduce feedstock costs for processors. This weakens price support for canola oil and creates conditions for further price declines.

Meanwhile, ample canola stocks could encourage higher crushing volumes, leading to increased supplies of canola meal. Expectations of higher production of this feed ingredient are also putting downward pressure on spot prices and related futures contracts.

Overall, the higher Canadian canola stocks forecast creates bearish pressure across three markets — canola seed, canola oil, and canola meal. Future price movements will depend on actual crushing volumes, export demand, and the pace of stock reductions throughout the MY 2026/27.

Tags: rapeseed, stocks