Canada raises canola crop estimate to 19 mln tons

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has raised its forecast for canola production in the country in MY 2024/25 by 400,000 to 19 million tons, which is almost the same as in the previous season (19.2 million tons).

The forecast for domestic consumption of the oilseed was also raised by 0.8 million tons to 12.2 million tons (11.5 million tons in MY 2023/24).

The forecast for ending stocks is raised by 0.3 million tons to 2.5 million tons, which is still well below the MY 2023/24 result (3.1 million tons).

Rains in the Canadian prairies last week delayed the canola harvest. This could deteriorate the quality of the crop and reduce its potential. As of the end of September, canola was 55% harvested in Saskatchewan (82% last year), 48.5% harvested in Alberta, and 55% harvested in Manitoba.

For September 15-22, canola exports from Canada decreased from 310.3 to 228.6 thousand tons compared to the previous week, and reached 1.67 million tons this season, 3.4 times last year’s pace due to increased shipments to the EU amid lower prices than European or Ukrainian rapeseed.

Statistics Canada (StatCan) earlier raised its canola crop forecast 1.6% to 19.5 million tons, up from 19.2 million tons in 2023 (USDA estimates 20 million tons), as yields will increase 1.8% to 39.4 bushels/acre, although harvested area will decline 0.4% to 21.8 million acres.

By the end of the summer, canola stocks in Canada had surged 67% in the country to a four-year high of 3.1 million tons. Analysts warn that oilseed stocks may continue to grow amid the anti-dumping investigation initiated by China.

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Tags: Canada, rapeseed, crop forecast