Canada: Latest weather predictions a mixed bag

After a warm start to the year, temperatures took a decidedly cold turn in February.

Thanks to a southward shift in the infamous polar vortex, all the major reporting stations recorded well below average temperatures in February. Even with the blast of warm air that invaded the Prairies during the last week of the month, average temperatures were just not able to recover.

It was also a dry month across the Prairies in February with only Regina reporting above average precipitation.

It was very clear that February was colder and drier than average.

Looking back at all the forecasts, I would have to give the win to the CFS model, which correctly called for a much colder than average February with near to slightly above average precipitation. While the precipitation forecast was off a little bit, the temperature forecast was bang on.

Now on to our look at the long-range weather predictions.

TheOld Farmers Almanac is predicting a slightly colder and snowier than average March followed by a very warm April with near average precipitation. The May forecast is calling for slightly above average temperatures and precipitation.

The Canadian Farmers Almanac is predicting a colder and wetter than average March followed by near average temperatures and precipitation in April. May appears to be calling for near average temperatures with precipitation to be above average.

Moving on to the computer-based forecasts, we start with NOAA’s latest three-month forecast. This model is calling for below average temperature over the western half of the Prairies with near average temperatures in the east. Its precipitation forecast is calling for near average amounts right across the Prairies over the next three months.

The CFS model is calling for above average temperatures across all three months, with March being the warmest compared to average.

Its precipitation forecast is predicting average precipitation in March with southern Manitoba seeing below average amounts. April is forecasted to be above average across much of southern and central Alberta and Saskatchewan along with central Manitoba. May looks to be relatively dry with most regions seeing near to below average precipitation with Manitoba expected to be the driest.

The Canadian CanSIPS model is predicting below average temperatures in both March and April, with near to slightly above average temperatures in May.

Its precipitation forecast is calling for average amounts in March with below average amounts in both April and May.

The European or ECMWF forecast is calling for near to slightly above average temperatures with the extreme southern Prairies seeing the best chance of above average temperatures. The precipitation forecast is for near to below average amounts across all three months.

Last, and actually least, is my prediction. I think March will see slightly above average temperatures along with near to slightly below average precipitation. April will be an average month both temperature and precipitation wise. Finally, May will see warmer and wetter than average conditions.

Author: Daniel Bezte.

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA in geography, specializing in climatology, from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man.

Tags: temperatures, Prairies, warm, cold, Manitoba, forecast, precipitation