Canada exports wheat at record pace at the start of the new season

Canada has started the MY 2026/27 with record wheat export volumes. During the first six weeks of the season, the country shipped around 3.1 mln tons, up 68% from the same period last year, according to Canadian Grain Commission data.

Most of the August and early September shipments came from the 2025 crop, when Canada harvested a record 40.6 mln tons of wheat. Carry-in stocks at the start of the new season stood at 6.6 mln tons, up 2.4 mln tons year on year.

At the same time, the 2026 wheat crop is expected to be smaller. Statistics Canada forecasts production to fall by 11% to 36.1 mln tons, including 26.5 mln tons of spring wheat and 6.4 mln tons of durum. Despite the decline, the overall crop could still be the second largest on record.

The key uncertainty is the quality of the new crop following rains during harvest. Some analysts estimate that feed wheat supplies could rise to 6–7 mln tons, compared with around 3.5 mln tons of domestic demand in a typical year. This could pressure lower-quality wheat prices while widening premiums for high-protein wheat.

Additional support for Canadian exports could come from difficulties in moving wheat out of the Black Sea region. Increased attacks on infrastructure are complicating exports from Ukraine and Russia, which could redirect part of importer demand toward alternative suppliers, including Canada.

Tags: export, Canada, wheat