Canada expects small wheat output recovery in 2022-23

Canadian wheat production is forecast to rise from near record lows anticipated this year, but the recovery could be smaller than market expectations, government department Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) said.

Canada’s wheat output could total 22mn t in the 2022-23 marketing year, AAFC cereals, grains and pulses deputy director Tony McDougall told the Global Grain Conference in Geneva today. Spring wheat could account for 17mn t, with the remaining 5mn t coming from durum wheat.

But this would be only marginally higher than the multi-year low of 21mn t projected by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for 2021-22 and well below 35.18mn t in 2020-21. In comparison, market participants see higher year-on-year recovery in a range of 23mn-25mn t for 2022-23.

The forecast increase would be a result of higher planted acreages — with increases of 6pc for spring wheat and 10pc for durum — as farmers are expected to step up wheat planting in response to rising global crop prices, McDougall said. This implies that AAFC may not be expecting a significant yield improvement on the year if it attributes the output recovery solely to higher acreages.

Canadian wheat yields have declined sharply from long-term averages this year following persistent dry and hot weather conditions across the northwest US and Canada this summer. Yields fell to 2.47 t/hectare (247t/km²) on average, their lowest since 2007-08, under USDA estimates.

Argus Media

Tags: forecast, wheat output, wheat yields, durum wheat, Canada, AAFC, spring wheat, wheat production