Canada could cut rapeseed exports by 14% as domestic crushing expands

Canada could reduce rapeseed exports by 14% in the MY 2026/27 to 7.8 mln tons, compared with 9.1 mln tons in the previous season. The main driver will be increased domestic crushing amid growing demand for canola oil from the biofuel industry. According to analysts at Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (AMI), expanding processing capacity will limit the availability of Canadian rapeseed for international buyers even as production remains relatively stable.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), Canada’s rapeseed production is forecast at 22.1 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, broadly in line with the previous season. The production estimate was raised by 600 thsd tons compared with the September forecast. Final output will depend on weather conditions, as harvesting in Saskatchewan and Alberta was running behind the usual pace in early October.

Domestic rapeseed consumption in Canada is projected to reach 14.5 mln tons, up from 13.1 mln tons a year earlier, representing an increase of almost 11%. The main drivers are expanding crushing capacity and growing demand for canola oil and meal. The development of biodiesel and renewable diesel (HVO) production, which uses canola oil as a feedstock, is providing additional support to the sector.

Demand growth is also being supported by changes in US biofuel policy, particularly tax incentives for producing fuels with lower greenhouse gas emissions. Updated carbon intensity calculation rules are making canola oil more attractive to the biofuel industry. As a result, Canadian crushers are gaining additional opportunities to market their products, encouraging increased rapeseed purchases on the domestic market.

Canada’s shrinking export potential could affect the global rapeseed market balance, as the country remains one of the world’s largest suppliers of the oilseed. According to analysts, an increasing share of the Canadian crop will be directed towards domestic crushing rather than seed exports. This could intensify competition among international importers for available rapeseed supplies and increase the importance of alternative suppliers.

Tags: Canada, oilseeds, rapeseed, oilseed crushing