Canada: Chickpea harvest forecasts see big disparity

Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, is forecasting an average yield of 24 bushels per acre, which is higher than Statistics Canada’s initial estimate of 21.5.

His number would result in a crop of 345,000 tonnes.

Ali Siddiqui, trade director with the Northern Chickpeas Alliance, told delegates attending the 2025 Pulse and Special Crops Convention that Penner isn’t considering the “phenomenal” second growth that occurred after June 15.

He estimates that added seven to 10 bu. per acre to the troubled areas of southern Saskatchewan and Alberta and at least 10 bu. to the remainder.

Siddiqui believes that will bump production up to 475,000 to 500,000 tonnes.

Quality will be decent, although not as good as the last four years.

His production estimate is similar to Penner’s total supply number of 480,000 tonnes, although Penner acknowledged that is probably on the low side.

Penner is forecasting 235,000 tonnes of exports in 2025-26, which would be a new record. That is due to the current low-price environment.

However, ending stocks are still expected to climb to 123,000 tonnes, up from 90,000 tonnes in 2024-25, and that is using Penner’s conservative yield estimates.

“It’s going to be difficult to see any meaningful (price) rally this year,” he said.

Mexico had a poor crop of about 175,000 tonnes, a 29 per cent drop from last year.

Prices are starting to rise in that market after tumbling since the start of 2024, which is an indication that the crop is indeed short.

However, India’s kabuli production is estimated at 550,000 tonnes, a 38 per cent increase.

Exports are forecast at 170,000 tonnes, up from 130,000 tonnes last year. That will more than offset Mexico’s shortfall.

There is a big price premium for large calibre chickpeas in India.

Russia produced 750,000 tonnes of kabulis, but harvest weather may have caused some quality damage. It grows small calibre chickpeas.

Siddiqui said 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of Russia’s crop is slightly larger than normal, so it will provide stiff competition for Canada.

Argentina is another producer of small-to-medium calibre kabulis. Production is pegged at 170,000 tonnes and exports at 140,000 tonnes, which would be the largest program since 2019-20.

The United States produced an estimated 255,000 tonnes, almost identical to last year.

Steve Foster, trader with Adroit Overseas, said there is not as many 10 millimetre chickpeas as usual in the U.S. this year.

Andac Kolukisa, managing director of Natural Gida A.S., said Turkey usually produces 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes of kabulis. This year’s production is down 20 to 25 per cent.

About 20 per cent of Turkey’s crop is usually nine mm chickpeas, but this year it is closer to eight or nine per cent, so they will be in the market for nine mm product, he said.

Turkey’s top preference for nine-millimetre chickpeas for roasting is its domestic production, followed by Argentina and then Canada, said Kolukisa.

However, Argentina’s chickpeas are higher priced, and transit time to Turkey is about 15 days longer than Canada’s.

Siddiqui said Canadian farmers are not selling at today’s prices. He thinks there could be an incremental price bump during special occasions such as Ramadan and Algeria tenders.

Foster does not expect much grower selling until after Christmas.

Kolukisa thinks prices will drop another $50 to $70 per tonne.

Tags: exports, prices, Canada, Production, chickpeas, yield, kabulis