Brazil’s wheat crop to fall by a third as imports rise, Conab says

Brazil has significantly lowered its 2026 wheat production forecast due to adverse weather conditions associated with El Niño, which have negatively affected grain yields and quality. According to updated estimates from Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab), wheat production is now projected at 5.26 mln tons, down from 5.73 mln tons in the October forecast. This represents a downward revision of 470 thsd tons, or 8.2%, in just one month. Compared with the previous season, production could decline by 33.2%.

The main factors behind the weaker outlook are reduced planted area and excessive rainfall during grain maturation and harvesting. Brazil’s wheat area in 2026 is estimated at 1.91 mln hectares, down 21.7% year-on-year. Average yields are forecast at 2.75 tons per hectare, representing a 14.6% decline from last year. Heavy rainfall has damaged the milling quality of part of the crop, limiting its suitability for flour production and increasing the availability of feed-grade wheat.

Against the backdrop of declining domestic production, Conab sharply raised its wheat import forecast for Brazil from 7.06 mln to 8.94 mln tons. The upward revision of nearly 1.9 mln tons indicates a significant increase in the country’s dependence on foreign suppliers. At the same time, the forecast for ending wheat stocks was cut by more than half, from 1.06 mln tons to just 436.5 thsd tons. Such low inventories could make the domestic market more vulnerable to fluctuations in international prices and potential supply disruptions.

Conab also increased its domestic wheat consumption forecast from 12 mln to 13.2 mln tons. The increase is primarily attributed to greater use of lower-quality wheat in animal feed production. Meanwhile, the flour milling industry will require additional imports of milling-quality wheat to meet its needs. Argentina traditionally remains Brazil’s main wheat supplier, meaning that developments in the Brazilian market will depend heavily on Argentina’s harvest prospects and global grain prices.

Regarding other major agricultural commodities, Conab left its forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean production unchanged at a record 181.6 mln tons, up 0.7% from the previous season. The estimate for total corn production was also maintained at 148 mln tons. However, the corn export forecast was reduced from 46 mln to 43 mln tons, reflecting weaker expectations for international shipments despite an unchanged production outlook.

Tags: wheat, corn, Brazil, soybean