Brazil’s soybean crop forecast raised again, but prices remain stable due to increased processing volumes in the US

High rates of soybean planting and good precipitation in Brazil continue to improve crop prospects, but soybean prices remain consistently low.

According to AgRural, in Brazil, as of November 28, soybeans planted 91% of the planned area, compared to 85% last year.

Celeres agency raised the forecast of soybean production in Brazil in MY 2024/25 by 1 mln tonnes to 170.8 mln tonnes, and the export forecast to 107 mln tonnes. At the same time, Agroconsult agency increased the estimate of the planted areas by 1.5% (compared to last year) to 47.5 mln ha, the harvest forecast – by 11% to 172.6 mln tonnes, and exports – by 5.3% to 103.4 mln tonnes.

According to the BAGE Grain Exchange, soybeans were planted on 44.4% of the planned 18.6 mln ha in Argentina, and 98% of the crops have sufficient moisture and good condition due to recent rainfall.

January futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange this week traded at 362 $/t (-1.2% for the month) with the support of active exports and increased soybean processing in the United States.

In October, soybean processing in the United States increased in comparison with September by 15.7% to a record 5.87 million tons, while traders estimated it at 5.7 million tons. Stocks of soybean oil during the month decreased by 1.1% to 674 thousand tons.

Soybean exports from the United States for 22-28 November increased compared to the previous week by 78% to 2,088 million tons, of which 952 thousand tons purchased by China and 548,5 thousand tons – Italy. In general, since the beginning of the season exported 21,793 million tons of soybeans, which is 16.2% higher than last year.

Export sales of soybean oil from the United States during this period increased to 124.8 thousand tons, which was the largest weekly exports since March 2019 and the sixth highest in the history of the USDA data since 1990.

Tags: Brazil, prices, soybean