Brazil’s soybean crop forecast again exceeds expectations

Brazil is set to harvest a record 178 million metric tons of soybeans in the MY 2025/26, despite some irregular weather that delayed planting, Itau BBA analyst Francisco Queiroz said during an online event. For comparison, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates 175 million tons, while Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop totaled 171.5 million tons.

Soybean acreage is expected to increase by about 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) compared to the previous season, even as growers face tighter profit margins, Queiroz noted. The peak of the La Niña weather pattern between November and December created uneven conditions, which posed challenges for timely planting in some regions.

However, Queiroz highlighted favorable weather forecasts for the coming weeks in Brazil’s central production areas. These conditions are expected to support strong yields and ensure record-breaking output for the season.

Late soybean planting could negatively affect the country’s second corn crop in key central-western states, he added. Nevertheless, Itau BBA’s Agro Consulting team expects total corn production in Brazil to reach around 138–139 million tons, exceeding the USDA’s estimate of 131 million tons.

For reference, Brazil produced 136 million tons of corn in the 2024/25 season, according to USDA data. Despite weather challenges, the country’s agricultural sector continues to demonstrate steady growth in major crops, particularly soybeans and corn.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast