Brazil’s soybean acreage expansion to slow to a 20-year low — Conab

Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, could record its slowest soybean acreage expansion in 20 years in the MY 2026/27. According to Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab), soybean planting area is expected to increase by just 1.4% to 49.3 mln ha. This would be the weakest performance since the 2006/07 season, when acreage contracted by 9%. Meanwhile, soybean production could reach a new record of 181.6 mln tons, up 0.7% from the previous season.

The main reasons for slower acreage expansion are declining profitability, rising production costs and farmers’ cautious approach to new investments. Additional uncertainty comes from weather risks associated with a potentially stronger El Niño. According to Conab, acreage expansion is expected mainly in the northern and northeastern states of Rondônia, Tocantins, Piauí and Maranhão, which could also be among the hardest hit by adverse weather conditions. In the Center-West, Brazil’s main grain-producing region, soybean acreage is expected to remain virtually unchanged.

The current situation resembles the 2006/07 season, when Brazilian farmers reduced soybean acreage due to deteriorating financial conditions. At that time, producers faced weak global prices, rising costs for fertilizers, crop protection products and logistics, as well as crop losses caused by adverse weather and Asian soybean rust. A stronger Brazilian real and limited access to credit added further pressure. This time, however, the industry has so far managed to avoid an outright acreage contraction, partly because financially stronger agricultural companies are expanding their land holdings by taking over farmland from producers facing financial difficulties.

For comparison, Brazil’s soybean acreage expanded by 5–7% annually between 2020 and 2023, while growth reached as much as 11% in some earlier seasons. The current slowdown reflects a shift in farmers’ investment priorities, with greater attention being paid to the profitability of individual crops. In particular, Conab forecasts an increase of approximately 11% in first-crop corn acreage to 4.5 mln ha, driven by growing demand from the corn ethanol industry. Second-crop corn acreage could expand by 3.7% to 18.5 mln ha.

Cotton is also increasing competition for farmland with soybeans, as it remains an attractive crop for some Brazilian producers. Conab expects cotton acreage to rise by 3.7% to 2.09 mln ha, although cotton lint production is forecast to remain virtually unchanged at 4.16 mln tons due to a potential decline in yields. Thus, despite the record soybean production forecast, further acreage expansion in Brazil will be constrained by financial pressures, competition from other crops and weather risks. For the global market, this means that future growth in Brazilian soybean supplies will increasingly depend on higher yields rather than expanding planted area.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, sown area, winter planting