Brazil’s next coffee crop seen growing up to 10%

Source:  Nasdaq

Brazil’s coffee crop next season (2023/24) could grow by as much as 10% after positive weather in recent months allowed for a healthy flowering and good conditions for fruit development, analyst and broker HedgePoint said in a report on Tuesday.

“Initial crop estimates, although conservative, suggest an increase close to two digits compared to 2022/23 (July/June), which would be a relief for the market after two consecutive years of supply deficits,” said the report signed by coffee analyst Natalia Gandolphi.

HedgePoint projects the current Brazilian crop, which has already been harvested, at 60.2 million 60-kg bags. Next year’s crop, it said, would probably lead to a surplus in the global coffee supply balance.

It said rains in Brazilian coffee areas reached the average volume for the period, with some regions at levels above average. The country is the world’s largest producer and exporter.

The fact that many coffee trees in Brazil suffered severe pruning after the drought and frosts in 2021 also points to a positive outlook, the broker said, since they will be ready for their first production after that process.

Arabica coffee prices KCc1 slid 25% in the last four weeks as the market started to view the future production in Brazil as potentially large. SOF/L

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