Brazil’s grain production hits record highs

Brazil will harvest 325.7 million tons of cereals in the 2024-25 season, according to a recently released forecast by the National Supply Company (Conab). The current forecast is 9.4% higher than the previous season.

The latest producer survey reflects a 2.1% increase in planted area, estimated at 81.6 million hectares, and a 7.1% rebound in average yields, which are forecast at 3,990 kilograms per hectare, according to Conab’s fifth crop report, released Feb. 13. The forecast is 3.4 million tons more than in the January report and, if realized, would be the largest amount of grain harvested in the history of the survey series.

Conab pointed to an increase in total corn production, which is expected to reach 122 million tons and increase 5.5% from 2023-24. The first corn harvest has already reached 13.3% of the planted area. This season, there was a 6.6% decrease in planted area for the first corn crop, but this was offset by a 9.9% increase in average productivity compared to 2023-24. As a result, 23.6 million tons of corn is projected to be harvested in the first cycle.

The second corn crop is already 18.8% planted. Weather conditions are favorable, Conab notes, and with a projected 2.4% increase in planted acreage, production will be 96 million tons, up 6.4%.

An improved outlook for the second corn crop prompted Conab to update its domestic demand forecast to 86.9 million tons. Exports are estimated to fall slightly to 34 million tons in 2024-25 due to a declining surplus in international markets due to steadily rising domestic demand.

Second season corn planting follows a rapid soybean harvest. With 14.8% of the area already harvested, soybean production is expected to reach 166 million tons, up 18.3 million tons from the previous crop.

“The result reflects an increase in the area devoted to the crop, coupled with a recovery in the country’s average crop productivity,” Conab said. “Weather conditions were favorable, especially in Paraná, Santa Catarina and most states in the central west. The exceptions are Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul, where water restrictions have been in place since mid-December.”

Conab estimates rice production will reach 11.8 million tons, up 11.4% from 2023-24. The improved harvest this season guarantees domestic supplies and allows Brazilian rice exports to increase to 2 million tons, Conab says.

With planting almost complete, rice planted area should reach 1.7 million hectares, 6.4% more than in the previous harvest, Conab noted. In Rio Grande do Sul, the country’s largest producer, high temperatures and declining reservoir levels in some regions of the state are a concern, although they do not indicate a drop in average productivity.

Tags: crop forecast, corn, Brazil, wheat