Brazil’s crop production steady as weather woes loom

Brazil’s expected overall 2025-26 grain harvest held steady compared to initial estimates, but the National Supply Company (Conab) said it is monitoring adverse weather events in certain regions.

Total grain harvest is estimated at 354.8 million tonnes, up slightly from the 351.9 million tonnes produced in 2024-25, according to a Nov. 13 report from Conab, its second monthly forecast for 2025-26. It is monitoring weather events in Paraná, the irregularity of rainfall in Mato Grosso and the delay in precipitation in Goiás.

Soybean area is expected to increase 3.6% with production of 177.6 million tonnes, up from 171.5 million tonnes in 2024-25. Soybean planting in the current cycle is within the average of the last five years, but behind schedule when compared to the percentage recorded in a similar period of the previous season, particularly in Goiás and Minas Gerais.

With the projected reduction in US exports, increased global demand and the expectation of higher Brazilian production, significant growth in the country’s exports is estimated, potentially reaching 112.1 million tonnes, a 5.11% increase compared with the previous harvest, Conab said.

“Furthermore, the expected increase in the mandatory blending of biodiesel with diesel, coupled with the growing demand for vegetable protein, suggests that the volume of soybeans destined for crushing could reach 59.37 million tonnes in 2026,” Conab said. “This volume represents a 1.37% increase compared to the previous year.”

Adding up the three harvests, corn production is estimated at 138.8 million, a drop of 1.6% compared with the previous cycle. In the first harvest, the cultivated area should grow by 7%, with production projected at 25.9 million tonnes.

Conab forecasts that approximately 94.6 million tonnes of corn will be consumed domestically in the 2025-26 harvest, representing a 4.5% increase compared with the previous cycle. This will be driven mainly by higher demand for ethanol production.

Exports also are expected to increase, potentially reaching 46.5 million tonnes, supported by the maintenance of a good production surplus.

Wheat production, the main winter crop, is estimated at 7.7 million tonnes, down slightly from 7.9 million tonnes in 2024. Generally, in the main producing regions, climatic conditions were favorable for crop development. However, reduced investment in inputs, especially fertilizers and pesticides, made crops more susceptible to disease and limited the full realization of their productive potential, resulting in smaller ears with fewer grains, Conab said.

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