Brazilian Weather Shows Modest Improvement, but Still Irregular

The rainfall in central Brazil improved modestly last week, but the coverage was sporadic especially in east-central and northeastern Brazil. The area of concern is eastern Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Bahia, Tocantins, Maranhao, and Piaui. Rain over the weekend favored some of the dry areas, but more rain is needed. The short-term forecast calls for scattered showers, but the 6-10 day forecast is calling for a return of dryer weather. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

While central Brazil needs more rain, southern Brazil needs to dry out. Persistent heavy rains continue to impact southern Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande Sul. The wet weather has slowed the wheat harvest and the soybean planting, especially in Rio Grande do Sul. The ideal soybean planting window in Rio Grande do Sul closes about November 12th, but only approximately one-quarter of the crop will be planted by that date.

Southern Brazil should have a few dry days early this week, but heavier rains are expected to return to the region in the 6-10 day period.

Even though the weather has shown some improvement in central and northeastern Brazil, it is still erratic with incomplete coverage. The situation thus far is probably trimming the soybean yield potential, but it could get much more serious if the erratic weather continued during the critical pod filling period of December-January-February.

Tags: forecast, yield, harvest, planting, Brazil, rainfall, soybean, wheat