Brazilian Weather Continues to Benefit Soybean Development

The weather in Brazil continues to be generally beneficial for the 2024/25 soybean crop. After a dry start to the planting season, rainfall picked up during the second half of October and it continues to the present.

Below is the accumulated precipitation in Brazil for the last 90 days from the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet). The map on the left is for 2024, while the map on the right is for the same period in 2023. As you can see, the rainfall in 2024 has been much heavier and widespread especially in central Brazil.

2024 last 90-day accumulated precipitation.        2023 last 90-day accumulated precipitation.

Below is the precipitation forecast for December-January-February from the Brazilian National Weather Service which was published in Conab’s December Crop Report. Even though some areas of central Brazil are forecasted to receive below normal rainfall during December-January-February, which is the peak of the rainy season in central Brazil, rainfall during that period is generally much more than what is needed by the crop. Therefore, receiving 2-3-4 inches below normal rainfall is not as important as when any potential dryness occurs.

A two-or-three-week period of dry weather during pod filling is more important than having generally below normal rainfall during the summer growing season. Temperatures during the next three months are forecasted to be generally above normal for most of Brazil.

The below normal rainfall forecasted for the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul needs to be watched. The weather in Rio Grande do Sul is more akin to Argentina than to central Brazil and the state receives less rainfall than central Brazil. Below normal summer rainfall in the state could have a negative impact on the crops.

Below is the precipitation forecast for December-January-February from the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmat).

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