Brazil to record soybean production of 173 mln tons in 2025/26 season

Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, is projected to set a soybean harvest record in 2025/26, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

Brazil accounts for 40% of global soybean production, and its output is expected to increase 2% year-on-year to 173 million tonnes as Brazilian producers are projected to increase soybean planting area to 48.2 million hectares from an estimated 47.3 million hectares in 2024/25.

FAS forecasts soybean exports to grow 3% to 112 million tonnes in 2025/26, more than double that of the next-largest exporter, the United States.

The agency said global soybean demand will continue to grow, with China “the main driver of global demand, accounting for the majority of global soybean imports.” While China is trying to become more self-sufficient in grain and oilseed supplies, FAS does not expect the world’s second-most populous country to reduce its purchases from Brazil, especially as trade tensions with the United States mount. The agency previously released a report that forecast growth in Chinese soybean and canola demand and crushing. China is expected to import 106 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025/26, up 2% from an estimated 104 million tonnes in 2024/25. The European Union accounts for about 14% of Brazil’s soybean and derivatives exports, the report said. Another factor making Brazilian soybean exports attractive is the country’s currency exchange rate, which remains relatively low due to the country’s economic stagnation.

With global demand for soybeans growing, soybean acreage in Brazil has grown by 20% over the past four years. FAS predicts that acreage will continue to expand as the Brazilian government focuses on converting degraded pastures into farmland.

The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) recently estimated that soybean acreage in Brazil will reach nearly 56 million hectares by 2032/33, with production increasing to 186.7 million tonnes.