Brazil sees record soybean crop but cuts corn export forecast – StoneX

StoneX estimates Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop at a record 183.36 mln tons, virtually unchanged from its previous forecast of 183.5 mln tons. This would be 0.4% above the previous season.

Soybean planting is progressing relatively normally across most producing regions, reducing concerns over delays to second-crop corn planting. However, rainfall and temperatures will remain the key factors for soybean production through the end of the year.

The forecast for Brazil’s first-crop corn production in 2026/27 was left unchanged at 29.3 mln tons, up 2.4% year-on-year. Growth is expected to be supported by larger planted area and favorable weather in Rio Grande do Sul, where production is estimated at 6.7 mln tons.

At the same time, StoneX cut its forecast for Brazilian corn exports in the MY 2025/26 by 2 mln tons to 40 mln tons. This is also below the 41.6 mln tons exported in the previous season.

The revision reflects stronger competition from Argentina following a record crop, less attractive prices at Brazilian ports and higher domestic consumption. With weaker exports, Brazil’s opening corn stocks in 2026/27 could rise to 28.57 mln tons from 22.87 mln tons a year earlier.

Tags: soybean, corn, Brazil