Brazil is shifting its focus from expanding the area under soya to increasing yields

Brazil could end more than two decades of continuous soybean acreage expansion in the 2026/27 season. According to Rabobank, farmers are not expected to reduce planted area, but the expansion into new land is likely to virtually halt due to shrinking margins, high interest rates, more expensive credit and rising production costs.

Brazil planted around 49 mln ha of soybeans in 2025/26, while production could reach a record 182 mln tons. For 2026/27, Rabobank initially forecasts the crop at 178 mln tons, reflecting stable planted area and an expected return of yields to levels closer to historical averages.

The shift is particularly significant after a prolonged period of rapid growth in Brazil’s soybean sector. Between 2000/01 and 2025/26, soybean acreage expanded by an average of around 4% per year. As a result, Brazil’s share of global soybean production increased from about 28% in 2010 to 42% in 2026, while the country now accounts for nearly 60% of global soybean exports.

However, higher fertilizer costs, lower global soybean prices and elevated interest rates have weakened production margins in recent years. According to Rabobank, farmers are increasingly shifting their focus from acreage expansion to preserving liquidity, managing risks and improving the efficiency of existing farmland. Future production growth is expected to come primarily from higher yields and more intensive land use, including double-cropping systems.

Rabobank expects slower growth in Brazil’s soybean production to affect the global market balance, potentially contributing to lower stocks and supporting premiums for Brazilian soybeans. Nevertheless, Brazil is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter. A potential El Niño event remains an additional risk for the 2026/27 crop and has not yet been factored into the bank’s initial forecast.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, yield