Brazil: Growers remain cautious in wait for rains and with slow new-crop soybean planting progress

Soybean planting in Brazil slowed down last week, reflecting the low rainfall across much of the country. Despite this momentary delay, there is no cause for concern. The trend reflects, above all, a more cautious approach on the part of growers, who are awaiting more consistent moisture conditions before intensifying work. Updated climate maps indicate a much more favorable scenario starting on the 10th, especially in the midwestern states, where the return of rainfall should ensure good soil conditions for the resumption of planting. Therefore, the slower pace observed last week represents only a technical pause, not a loss of a window.

Expectations remain positive regarding the progress of activities and the opening of a good sowing window in the midwestern states, which reinforces confidence in a normal start to the crop. Safras & Mercado estimates nationwide planting at approximately 11.2%, compared to 8.2% in the same period in 2024. This is a better pace but slightly below the five-year average of around 14.1%.

In Paraná, approximately 38% of the soybean area has been planted. This rate is equivalent to roughly 2.242 mln hectares planted, out of a total of 5.9 mln hectares estimated for the state. The previous week, the rate was 30%. In the same period last year, the rate was 36%, while the five-year average for the period is 30.8%.

In Mato Grosso, out of a total area estimated at 12.83 mln hectares, approximately 20% has already been planted—equivalent to nearly 2.566 mln hectares. The previous week, the rate was 17%. In the same period last year, the rate was only 9%, while the five-year average is 27.6%. Progress was much slower this week due to limited rainfall in the region.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, approximately 10% of the area has already been planted, representing approximately 454,000 hectares of soybeans planted. The previous week, approximately 8% had been planted. In the same period in 2024, the rate was 9%, while the five-year average for this time of year is 10.1%.

In the state of Goiás, around 2% of an expected total area of ​​4.93 bln hectares has been planted. In 2024, the rate was 3%, while the five-year average is 9.2%.

Climate maps indicate good rainfall expected between October 11 and 17, marking the return of precipitation to the Midwest region, especially in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás. The scenario also includes the states of the Southeast and, especially, the South, where rainfall is expected to be more consistent. These conditions should favor the resumption of soybean planting, allowing growers to advance their crops more intensively. However, rainfall is still not expected to be heavy—accumulating around 10 to 15 millimeters—which requires some caution regarding effective soil moisture replenishment.

Furthermore, the intense heat waves that persist in sections of Mato Grosso remain a concern, potentially limiting rainfall regularity and impacting sowing schedules.

Between October 18 and 24, climate models indicate increased moisture and more significant rainfall volumes in virtually all producing regions. This return of rainfall should alleviate the excessive heat experienced in the Midwest region, contributing to better planting conditions.

Forecasts for November remain quite positive, with significant rainfall increases across the country. Maps indicate good rainfall accumulation and even distribution, which should favor moisture replenishment and adequate soil maintenance, creating a favorable environment for the initial development of soybean crops.

Tags: soybeans, crop, planting, Brazil, rainfall