Brazil forecasts record grain harvest for MY 2024/25

According to the 11th Harvest Survey by Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab), published on August 14, 2025, Brazil anticipates a record grain harvest of 345.2 million tonnes for the 2024-25 season. This is 47.7 million tonnes higher than the previous season, driven by a 2.5% increase in cultivated area to 81.9 million hectares and a productivity rise from 3,722 kg/ha to 4,214 kg/ha. The estimate is up 5.6 million tonnes from Conab’s July report.

Corn production is projected to reach 137 million tonnes, a record increase of 21.5 million tonnes year-on-year. The second corn harvest, now 84% complete, is expected to yield 109.6 million tonnes. With strong domestic supply and anticipated growth in international demand for South American corn due to tariff disputes between the U.S. and major importers, Conab forecasts exports of 40 million tonnes, with carryover stocks reaching 10.3 million tonnes.

Soybean production for the season is estimated at 169.7 million tonnes, a 15% increase from 2023-24. Record output was driven by farmer investments supported by credits through the Harvest Plan and favorable weather conditions across most producing regions, enabling significant production growth.

Rice production is also on the rise, with a projected harvest of 12.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from the previous year. An 8.8% expansion in planted area and favorable weather, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, the main producing state, are key factors supporting this growth.

Among winter crops, wheat production is expected to remain stable at 7.81 million tonnes, despite a 17% reduction in planted area to 2.55 million hectares. Favorable weather conditions have offset the smaller sown area, ensuring steady output. These figures solidify Brazil’s position as a major player in the global grain market.

Tags: corn, grain, Brazil, soybean, wheat, crop forecast