Brazil expected to increase wheat imports in 2026 as domestic output falls

Brazil is expected to increase its wheat imports in 2026 as domestic production declines amid rising input costs, including fertilizers and fuel, linked to geopolitical tensions. Industry experts cited by Reuters say uncertainty over weather and production conditions is also weighing on planting decisions.

Imports are projected to rise to around 7 million tons, with some forecasts suggesting volumes could exceed 8 million tons in the 2026/27 season, marking one of the highest levels in over a decade.

At the same time, Brazil may shift its sourcing pattern as wheat quality in Argentina deteriorates. This could push Brazilian mills to increase purchases from the United States and Russia, potentially raising overall procurement costs.

Analysts note that part of Argentina’s wheat crop is increasingly being downgraded due to lower protein content, limiting its suitability for bread flour and redirecting some volumes to feed markets.

An additional risk factor is the expected El Niño weather pattern, which could bring excessive rainfall to southern Brazil’s main wheat-growing regions. This may negatively affect both yields and grain quality, further increasing Brazil’s reliance on imports.