Brazil could increase non-GMO soybean exports to EU as Indian supplies decline

Brazil has an opportunity to expand exports of non-GMO soybeans and processed soybean products to the European Union in the MY 2026/27 amid declining supplies from India and limited availability from alternative exporters. According to ProTerra Foundation, changes in global non-GMO soybean trade are creating new opportunities for Brazilian producers. However, further export growth will depend on the development of certified production, logistics infrastructure and long-term contracts with European buyers.

Despite Brazil’s leading position in the global soybean market, the country’s non-GMO soybean production remains relatively small. In the MY 2024/25, output of non-GMO soybeans fell to a historic low of around 1.5 mln tons. The main reasons included shortages of certified seeds, unstable demand and insufficient long-term purchasing commitments. Meanwhile, rising premiums for non-GMO products and growing interest from European importers could encourage a recovery in specialized production.

One of the main factors reshaping trade flows is the decline in soybean meal exports from India. According to ProTerra Foundation, the country’s soybean meal production decreased from approximately 9 mln tons in 2023/24 to 8.8 mln tons in 2024/25, while output in 2025/26 was projected at 7.4 mln tons. Meanwhile, exports could fall from nearly 2 mln tons to less than 1 mln tons. Reduced availability of Indian soybean meal is increasing European buyers’ need to diversify their supply sources.

Ukraine remains an important supplier of non-GMO soybeans to the EU, although changes in export policy and the development of domestic processing are gradually shifting the structure of Ukrainian shipments toward soybean meal rather than raw soybeans. At the same time, European importers are exploring opportunities to increase purchases from Canada, Argentina and West African countries. Against this backdrop, a recovery in Brazilian non-GMO soybean production could intensify competition among major suppliers in the European market.

Compliance with requirements for traceability, GMO-free status and environmental certification is becoming a key condition for expanding exports to Europe. For Brazilian producers, early contracting, access to certified seeds and the development of dedicated supply chains for non-GMO products are becoming increasingly important. According to industry experts, reliable supplies, verified quality and long-term cooperation with European buyers will be decisive factors in determining exporters’ competitiveness in the coming seasons.

Tags: Brazil, EU, soybean, India