Brazil: Chicken meat gains competitiveness over the year

The Brazilian chicken industry entered 2025 with high expectations. Export results for chicken and eggs were pointing to a promising outlook for the international market. Until the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks, the sector was enjoying a balance between supply and demand, with prospects for good margins. However, this situation changed drastically with the successive embargoes imposed on Brazilian chicken products.

The good news for the sector is that, albeit gradually, Brazil’s main chicken meat buyers are reestablishing trade with the country. This week, the European Union declared Brazil free of highly pathogenic avian influenza, resuming purchases of chicken products. Among the major importers, only China, which, before the embargo, was the main destination for Brazilian chicken meat, remains to be recovered.

In the domestic market, the outbreak of the disease generated instability and inconsistencies, causing a drop in the prices of live and slaughtered chicken in several regions of the country. Even in this turbulent environment, there was no significant reduction in the placement of breeding chicks, whose production is expected to end 2025 above 7.3 bln.

Another positive for the chicken industry is the increased competitiveness of chicken meat against other proteins, especially beef. This provides some relief to the sector, with the possibility of a price recovery in times of growing domestic demand.

Given the population’s low purchasing power, the logical choice falls on more affordable products, especially among consumers with a household income between one and two minimum salaries. In the meat sector, this preference is concentrated on chicken, eggs, and processed meat.

With the possible resumption of purchases by China by the end of 2025, the prospect of a rapid increase in Brazilian chicken exports is growing. This scenario should contribute to more consistent highs in domestic prices, both for slaughtered and live chicken.

Another positive factor is the situation with animal nutrition costs, which, in a preliminary analysis, remain controlled, with good availability of inputs this season. The significant supply of corn and soymeal in the domestic market contributes to maintaining a leaner cost structure.

For 2026, expectations are for a return to the full potential of Brazilian exports of chicken meat and other chicken products. Furthermore, the domestic market tends to benefit from the reduced domestic supply of beef. The elections and the World Cup are additional factors that should stimulate domestic consumption of animal proteins, signaling a promising year. It remains to be seen whether costs will remain under control—a scenario that depends heavily on grain production in the country, in a context of expensive credit and high rural producer debt, which could reduce the use of technology in the field and, consequently, impact the average productivity of future crops.

Tags: Brazil, Meat, European Union, chicken, outbreaks, demand, highly pathogenic avian influenza, eggs, China