Black Sea wheat exports fall by more than half versus five-year average

Combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine in July-September are estimated at around 8 mln tons, the lowest level for the first three months of a season since 2010/11, Bloomberg reported, citing SovEcon.

For comparison, Russia and Ukraine exported 16.2 mln tons of wheat over the same period a year earlier, while the five-year average stood at 18.2 mln tons.

Russian wheat exports in July-September are estimated at 5.4 mln tons, down 53% y/y. Ukrainian wheat shipments are seen at 2.6 mln tons, about 45% lower than a year earlier.

According to SovEcon head Andrey Sizov, the market still expects Black Sea flows to recover relatively quickly. However, there is currently no clear path to a normalization of shipping.

SovEcon believes that under these conditions, the risk of a prolonged disruption to Black Sea wheat exports remains substantially underpriced by the market.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, export, Black Sea region, wheat