Black Sea grain traders shift focus from sourcing grain to finding buyers

Despite higher wheat futures driven by shipping risks in the Black Sea, the physical market remains subdued. Market participants say the main challenge is no longer grain availability but weak demand, with traders increasingly focusing on securing buyers rather than competing for supplies.

In the Constanța–Varna–Burgas (CVB) market, reduced Ukrainian export capacity has not yet translated into meaningful price gains. According to traders, the main source of support currently comes from Algeria’s state grain buyer OAIC, while most market participants are concentrating on securing new sales instead of competing for limited logistics capacity.

A similar pattern is evident across the European physical wheat market. Although Euronext wheat futures have rallied sharply, sellers have been reluctant to lift offers in line with futures, while buyers remain on the sidelines awaiting greater clarity on geopolitical developments and new-crop supplies.

At the same time, Black Sea logistics risks continue to underpin global wheat prices. Uncertainty surrounding commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait, port damage and vessel cancellations continue to support a geopolitical risk premium, although this has yet to generate stronger physical trading activity.

Additional support comes from concerns over the US spring wheat crop and increasingly bullish fund positioning on Euronext. However, market participants believe that physical trade in the Black Sea region is likely to remain subdued until new large-scale import tenders emerge and demand improves.

Tags: wheat, war, Algeria, Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, export, Romania, prices, Black Sea region