Black Sea grain exports significantly exceed previous forecasts

Ukraine, especially in the last few months, has been exporting much more grain than expected. This, combined with two bumper harvests of Russian wheat, has led to a huge surplus of Black Sea grain supplies over the past two seasons.

This was reported by market analyst Karen Brown, Reuters reports.

On Friday, the USDA increased wheat exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 MY for the fifth consecutive month, while corn exports increased for the second consecutive month. Based on preliminary estimates, the increase in exports is due to better-than-expected shipments rather than a larger harvest.

The USDA’s combined estimates for Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports for 2023/24 MY are up 35% (10.5 million tons) since August, although production is up only 9% (4.4 million tons). This is based on a return to normal export volumes, suggesting that Ukraine’s export system has somewhat settled down.

Russia is set to export a post-Soviet record 56% of its wheat crop in 2023/24 MY, up from the five-year average of 48%. The United States is believed to export only 39% of its wheat crop this year, compared to the average of 50%, reflecting its recent loss of global market share.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, export, grain, Black Sea region