Black Sea export risks push global wheat futures sharply higher
Wheat futures posted strong gains across major global exchanges on July 22, with the largest increases recorded in the United States. September soft red winter wheat futures on the CBOT climbed to $259.31/t, hard red winter wheat futures on the KCBT in Kansas City rose to $280.53/t, while spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) reached $267.86/t.
Kansas City wheat led the rally, with September futures gaining 30.5 cents per bushel. September CBOT wheat futures advanced by 27.75 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat added 24.75 cents. The European market followed the same trend, with September milling wheat futures on Euronext MATIF rising to €244.25/t ($278.37/t) and December futures reaching €247.00/t.
One of the main drivers behind the rally was growing concern over grain exports from the Black Sea region. Market participants reported that Russia suspended nighttime grain shipments from the port of Novorossiysk following recent Ukrainian drone attacks. The disruption increased concerns about the reliability of exports from Russia’s largest grain export terminal.
The market also received support from concerns over U.S. spring wheat production. The first day of the annual North Dakota Crop Tour reported an average yield of 45.9 bushels per acre, 3.9 bushels per acre below last year’s level, raising expectations of lower production of high-quality spring wheat.
Traders are now awaiting the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report. According to a Reuters survey, new-crop U.S. wheat export sales are expected to range between 200,000 and 550,000 tons, providing the next key indicator for market direction.
French and Romanian wheat prices have increased by $16-19/t over the past week, while U.S. wheat has gained around $12/t. Ongoing Black Sea logistics risks, uncertainty surrounding the U.S. wheat harvest and expectations of stronger export demand continue to provide support for global wheat prices.
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