Black Sea blockade erases last season’s increase in global grain stocks – Rabobank

Global wheat prices have risen significantly over the past eight weeks. Key factors include worsening weather conditions in several regions and a renewed increase in risks to grain exports from Ukraine and Russia.

This was discussed in Rabobank’s RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness podcast.

Stefan Vogel, General Manager of RaboResearch in New Zealand and Australia, said the current rise in grain markets is being driven by two factors — weather and the war.

According to him, the global grain supply-demand balance has tightened in recent weeks. In Europe, heat and drought have negatively affected wheat and rapeseed yields, while the corn crop outlook has deteriorated in several regions. The United States is also facing dry conditions across the soybean and corn belt.

“If you look at supply and demand now, the world is losing as much wheat, barley and corn stocks as it built up last season,” Stefan Vogel explained.

The expert noted that the war has had a greater impact on logistics in recent weeks, with strikes affecting vessels, export grain elevators and loading berths. According to him, Russian grain exports have more than halved in recent weeks, while Ukrainian exports have fallen by more than 80%.

Alternative routes for Ukraine remain challenging. Rail shipments to Europe are expensive, while low water levels on the Danube have also created logistics constraints. The Port of Constanta, meanwhile, cannot quickly compensate for the decline in Black Sea exports.

Against this backdrop, importers are being forced to seek alternative suppliers more actively, including in Australia, the United States and Europe.

At the same time, Rabobank does not rule out a rapid change in the price situation. If exports from Ukraine and Russia remain disrupted, prices could continue to receive support. However, if agreements are reached on safe vessel passage and export volumes recover to levels closer to normal, the market could quickly come under downward price pressure.

Another risk is the planting campaign for the 2027 crop. If Ukrainian farmers are unable to sell the current harvest because of logistics constraints, this could weaken their cash flow and force them to reduce planted area for future crops.

Tags: corn, barley, prices, Black Sea region, wheat, stocks