Big global wheat harvest to put pressure on prices

Global wheat stocks could rise to 271 million tonnes by the end of 2025/26 from 264 million tonnes at the end of 2024/25.

The world is expected to have plenty of wheat in 2025/26, writes Canadian agronomist Sean Pratt in an article published on the Alberta Farmer Express portal: “As the Northern Hemisphere approaches the middle of the year, a larger-than-expected harvest is expected to limit the rise in global wheat prices,” Dennis Voznesensky, agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in his recent Agri Commodity Weekly Alert. According to him, global wheat stocks will rise to 271 million tonnes by the end of 2025/26 from 264 million tonnes at the end of 2024/25.

The trade body now forecasts Russia’s new wheat crop to be between 83 million and 85 million tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 78 million to 79 million tonnes.

“Favourable conditions could also push EU wheat production to more than 138 million tonnes, up from 122 million tonnes last year,” said Dennis Voznesensky. The European Commission forecasts EU wheat yields to be nine per cent above last year’s level and six per cent above the five-year average.

Canada’s spring wheat prospects have also improved significantly after large parts of the Canadian Prairies received much-needed rainfall. Analysts believe the rains have added millions of tonnes to the region’s grain output.

Erika Olson, manager of market development and research for the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said the growing season is also going well south of the 49th parallel: “Here in the U.S., we’re seeing a promising crop overall, but dry conditions out west.” Overall, she agrees with the assessment that the world should be well supplied with wheat.

“What we’re hearing really doesn’t raise any major concerns or red flags in any of the major wheat-producing countries in the world. There’s nothing to watch for right now. Wheat demand has been strong in 2024-25, especially for high-protein, high-quality wheat, and similar trends are expected going forward,” Olson said.

As for China, which imported about 20.68 million tonnes of wheat in 2024/25, less than half the 48.11 million tonnes it bought in the previous crop year, analysts estimate that the pendulum could swing back in this crucial market in 2025/26.

Former USDA economist Fred Gale noted in his Dim Sums blog that the Chinese government initially denied reports of poor conditions for the country’s wheat crop. However, the USDA recently acknowledged that parts of Henan Province, the country’s largest wheat producer, were facing prolonged drought, although efforts to increase irrigation had limited crop damage. As Gale writes in his blog, wheat yields have fallen by 4-15 percent this year in most parts of Henan and Shandong, China’s two largest wheat-producing provinces. Canadian wheat producers are hoping to benefit from this. According to the Wheat Market Outlook report prepared by Mercantile Consulting Venture for the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission, China was the largest importer of Canadian wheat in April, purchasing 237,000 tonnes. “After a very slow start, Canadian wheat exports to China have picked up to more normal monthly volumes. However, total exports to China (August through April) to date are 1.2 million tonnes, only 45 per cent of last year’s volume,” Mercantile noted.

Tags: prices, wheat, crop forecast