Barley purchase prices in Ukraine are falling amid declining demand
The 2024/25 season was marked by high starting prices for all crops. Thus, the prices for feed barley in the Black Sea ports increased by 5-8% to 168-172 USD/t or 8100 UAH/t since the beginning of the season, which was 12-15% higher than last year. But in the last week, exporters reduced prices by 50-150 UAH/t to 7900-7950 UAH/t, and some stopped purchases due to the lack of export demand for the next month, although the rate of barley exports is three times higher than last year.
In 2024/25 MY (as of August 7), Ukraine exported 661 thsd tonnes of barley compared to 203 thsd tonnes at the same time last year.
As of August 2, Ukraine harvested 4.82 mln tonnes of barley with the yield of 3.72 t/ha from 1.294 mln ha. In 2023/24 MY, Ukraine harvested 5.8 mln tonnes of barley, of which 2.5 mln tonnes were exported. In the current season, winter barley planting areas decreased from 536 to 470 thsd ha compared to last year, and spring barley planting areas decreased slightly from 810 to 783 thsd ha due to high demand for malting barley in 2023.
The increase in barley planting areas and harvest in the EU in 2024/25 MY sharply reduced the demand for Ukrainian malting barley, and maltsters have already accumulated stocks of raw materials that will last until the end of the season.
The purchase prices for malting barley in Ukraine at the beginning of the season amounted to 7000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, and within a month they increased to 7400-7800 UAH/t, but the premium for brewing quality does not exceed 100-300 UAH/t, although last year it reached 2500-3000 UAH/t. Some farmers sell malting barley as feed barley, not expecting prices to rise in the near future.
The reduction of barley harvest in Russia will be offset by increased production in the EU, so we should not expect export prices to rise, especially given the increase in supply of feed wheat in the EU (due to rains in Germany and France) and corn from South America, as well as the projected record corn harvest in the United States.
Ukrainian farmers are holding back barley sales in anticipation of better prices, but competition with Russian and Romanian barley will soon intensify on the global market, so exporters will have to lower prices to boost sales.
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