Azov Sea restrictions force Russian analysts to cut wheat export forecast for the first time

Russian analytical firm SovEcon has cut its 2026/27 wheat export forecast for the first time, directly linking the revision to shipping restrictions in the Azov Sea. The forecast for Russian wheat exports has been reduced by 1.9 mln tons to 44.6 mln tons.

Just last week, Russian analysts were revising their forecasts mainly because of weather conditions and crop prospects. Now, however, SovEcon has officially acknowledged for the first time that logistical restrictions in the Azov Sea have become a separate factor directly affecting the country’s export potential.

At the same time, the barley export forecast was lowered by 0.2 mln tons to 3.2 mln tons, while the corn export estimate was raised by 0.2 mln tons to 3.6 mln tons, reflecting expectations of strong demand from Iran via the Caspian route. As a result, the overall grain and pulse export forecast has been reduced from 56.1 mln tons to 53.8 mln tons.

SovEcon Managing Director Andrey Sizov said the current situation is primarily a logistical shock rather than a supply problem. According to him, if shipping restrictions in the Azov Sea persist, larger grain volumes will remain on the domestic Russian market, putting additional pressure on local prices while supporting global grain prices. Once the route reopens, exports could recover rapidly.

At the same time, analysts do not expect shipping conditions in the Azov Sea to normalize in the coming weeks. They also note that exports at the beginning of the season will be constrained by weak demand from major buyers, including Egypt and Türkiye, where domestic grain harvests are currently underway.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, barley, wheat