Australia’s wheat production forecast to decline to 32 mln tons

Australia’s wheat production in the MY 2026/27 is forecast to decline to 32 mln tons, compared with nearly 36 mln tons in the previous season. The estimate was released by the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) agricultural attaché in Canberra in a report dated October 23. Production is expected to fall by approximately 11% year-on-year but remain above the long-term average.

The US agricultural attaché’s estimate is 1 mln tons above USDA’s official forecast of 31 mln tons. Favorable growing conditions in southern Australia are supporting yields, with sufficient rainfall contributing to crop development. However, yield prospects in Western Australia have weakened somewhat due to below-average rainfall during the middle of the growing season.

Despite generally favorable growing conditions, Australia’s wheat production is expected to fall short of the strong results recorded last season. Australian farmers harvested nearly 36 mln tons of wheat in the MY 2025/26, while the current forecast points to a reduction of around 4 mln tons. Strong yields in the southern states are expected to partially offset weaker results in some regions, allowing Australia to maintain substantial production volumes.

Rising production costs have also influenced planting decisions in Australia. In particular, higher nitrogen fertilizer prices amid developments in the Middle East have encouraged some farmers to shift acreage from wheat to barley, which generally requires less nitrogen fertilizer. This has contributed to changes in the distribution of planted area between the country’s main grain crops in the 2026/27 season.

Meanwhile, Australian wheat exports in the MY 2026/27 are forecast at 25 mln tons, exceeding USDA’s official estimate of 23.5 mln tons by 1.5 mln tons. Despite the expected decline in production, Australia is set to remain one of the world’s largest wheat exporters. Substantial harvest volumes and export potential will allow the country to maintain a strong position in the international grain market, particularly in trade with Asian importers.

Tags: Australia, wheat