Australia’s big game on the grain market in the 2024/25 season

The country’s grain growers have increased acreage under virtually all marginal crops during planting, which is underway now, and are counting on favorable weather conditions – at least 23.6 million hectares have been planted in Australia so far, with average to above-average long-term rainfall forecast in most regions, and analysts are issuing optimistic forecasts.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Natural Resources Economics and Sciences (ABARES) says in its June forecast that farmers will produce 29.1 million tons of wheat, 11.5 million tons of barley and 5.4 million tons of rapeseed from the crop now being sown – for Australia, it is a winter crop.

Australia’s winter crop area is projected to remain historically high in 2024-2025, rising slightly to 23.6 million hectares, 6 percent above the 10-year average and by 2023-2024.

Projected increases in winter crop area in Queensland and New South Wales will more than offset declines due to drought conditions in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Winter crop yields are expected to be above average, with most regions experiencing an increased likelihood of average to above average winter rainfall.

Australia’s wheat area is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 12.7 million hectares in 2024-2025, while barley area is projected to increase by 3% to4.3 million hectares.

Wheat production is projected to increase 12% to 29.1 million tons in 2024-2025, 10% above the 10-year average and by 2023-2024.

Barley production is projected to increase 7% to 11.5 million tons in 2024-2025, 2% above the 10-year average, while rapeseed production is projected to decline 5% to 5.4 million tons, still 21% above the 10-year average.

Australian growers decided to plant less canola this year due to low returns, prioritizing other crops including wheat, barley and pulses.

ABARES forecasts Australia will produce 1.1 million tons of chickpeas and 1.6 million tons of lentils from the crop currently being planted.

Australia’s area planted to all winter grain legumes in 2024-2025 is projected to increase 17% from last season to 2.5 million hectares, driven by increased plantings of chickpeas and lentils.

Chickpea acreage is projected to increase by about 80 percent to 730,000 hectares in 2024-2025, 24 percent above the 10-year average and by 2023-2024.

Annualized national chickpea production is projected to increase 133 percent to 1.1 million tons in 2024-2025, 46 percent above the 10-year average and by 2023-2024.

Annualized national chickpea production is projected to increase 133% to 1.1 million tons in 2024-2025, 46% above the 10-year average and by 2023-2024.

Australian area planted to lentils is projected to increase further to a record 885,000 hectares in 2024-2025, reflecting high lentil prices. The harvest is expected to be 1.6 million tons, double the ten-year average. The expansion of acreage under lentils is insurance against low yields.

More lupin will also be sown. Western Australia is by far the largest lupin producer in Australia. It is forecast to produce 1.39 million tons of lupin from 330,000 hectares, with a 5% increase in area and an 11% increase in production.

Tags: Australia, grain